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Forecasting of Skill Needs

Completed projects
Project title LMI - Labour Market Institute (Activity 5: System for Analyses and Forecasts of Skill Needs)
Project duration 2006 - 2008

Logo ITP The objective of the LMI project, which run in five pilot regions was to streamline public employment services and improve their quality and accessibility for various groups of clients. Partners in the project included the NTF, the Economic Chamber of the Czech Republic and the Ministry of Labour and Social Affairs. The National Observatory implemented Activity 5 which was focused on proposing a system for regular analyses and forecasts of skill needs in the labour market, and for their use by employment services in their operations. The work included evaluation of foreing approaches to analyses and forecasts, and a proposal for methods to be employed in the CR. Moreover, a proposal was made for incorporating the analyses into the system of public employment services, the methodology was piloted and a web-based portal developed in Czech and English version www.czechfutureskills.eu

On 24 September the National Observatory organised a workshop in Prague concerned with the outputs and recommendations generated by sectoral studies carried out as part of the LMI project. The workshop was attended by a number of education experts, decision-makers, representatives of CzechInvest, and others. The following topics were addressed:

  1. A system for forecasting skill needs and its use by the public sector,
  2. The future and competitiveness of electrical engineering and ICT services,
  3. The demand for and supply of occupations and skills in the labour market in future

Project outputs (available in Czech only):

 Braňka, J., Havlíčková, V: Systém analýz a prognóz kvalifikačních potřeb trhu práce. (System for Analysing and Forecasting Labour Market Skill Needs) Informační seminář pro zahraniční odborníky (prezentace). Praha, 2/2008. NOZV-NVF.
 Braňka, J., Lapáček, M.: Systém analýz a prognóz kvalifikačních potřeb trhu práce (System for Analysing and Forecasting Labour Market Skill Needs). Conference on the LMI project (presentations). Konference projektu ITP, Velké Karlovice, 1/2008. NOZV-NVF.
 Braňka, J.: Systém analýz a prognóz kvalifikačních potřeb trhu práce zdokonalí služby zaměstnanosti. (System for Analysing and Forecasting Labour Market Skill Needs to Improve Employment Services). ProFuturo, listopad 2007, č.3, str. 5, NVF 2007.
 Braňka, J., Havlíčková, V., Šímová, Z.: Předvídání kvalifikačních potřeb - Sektorové studie. (Forecasting Skill Needs - Sectoral Studies). ProFuturo, květen 2007, č.2, str. 7, NVF 2007.
 Braňka, J., Havlíčková, V., Šímová, Z.: Předvídání kvalifikačních potřeb - Kvantitativní projekce. (Forecasting Skill Needs - Quantitative Projections). ProFuturo, květen 2007, č.2, s. 6, NVF 2007.

 

Project title Identification of Medium-Term Skill Needs
Project duration 2004 - 2009

Ilustrace - čarodějnice This is the third component of the five-year project The Knowledge Society - Requirements for Human Resources Skills and Continuing Training (2004 - 2009) implemented as part of the research programme "Modern Society and Is Changes". It focuses on evaluation of medium-term skill needs in relation to future development trends in the economy. Two five-year quantitative projections are being developed as part of the project dealing with the need for skilled labour (there will be an approximately two-year interval between them). The projections draws on employment forecasts in various sectors. The results of the projection will be validated by means of qualitative methods making use, above all, of secondary analyses, comparative studies of the development of skill needs abroad, expert discussions and focus groups. Moreover, a pilot sectoral study is carried out. The work also includes further development of the methodological tools for timely identification of skill needs. Apart from the National Observatory, the Research Institute for Labour and Social Affairs and Cerge-EI also take part in the project.

Project outputs (available in Czech only):

 Havlíčková, V.: Projekce zaměstnanosti v odvětvích do r. 2010 pro Českou republiku. (Projections of Employment in Industries in the Czech Republic until 2010"). Statistika. 2007, č.5, s. 384-403.
 Braňka, J., Havlíčková, V., Šímová, Z.: Předvídání kvalifikačních potřeb - Kvantitativní projekce. (Forecasting Skill Needs - Quantitative Projections). ProFuturo. Květen 2007, č.2, s. 6.
 Účast v dalším vzdělávaní pracovníků kvalifikačně náročných profesí v ČR a EU. (Participation of Workers in Skills-Intensive Occupations in Continuing Education in the CR and the EU). Working Paper NOZV-NVF č. 3/2005. Praha, NOZV-NVF 2005.
 Projekce zaměstnanosti v ČR na období 2005-10 v členění dle ekonomických odvětví. (Projections of Employment in the CR for 2005-10 According to Industries). Working Paper NOZV-NVF č. 4/2005. Praha NOZV-NVF 2005.

 

Project title Development of the System and Methodology for Forecasting Labour Market Skill Needs Including Proposals for Research and Development
Project duration 2002 - 2003

The project was the third component of the extensive project "Training, Research and Development as Key Factors of the Development of Society and the Economy" implemented as part of the research programme of the Ministry of Labour and Social Affairs "Modern Society and Its Changes". It followed upon work commenced in 2002 as part of the project "Finalisation of Methodology, Data Inputs and Structures for Practical Implementation of a Scheme for Quantitative and Qualitative Forecasting of Skills Needs, Including the Interpretation of Its Outputs" (see the project below). The project dealt with the current situation as regards timely identification of needs for skilled labour in the CR and abroad, and the methodology for developing sectoral studies of skill needs. It presented the results of the application of a ROA-Cerge quantitative forecasting model and showed some of the ways in which they can be used. The ROA-Cerge forecasting model was expanded to cover the segment of substituting demand for skills. A proposal was made on how statistical information about wages can be used to complement the results of forecasting, and further adjustments were proposed to improve the predictive functions of the model.

Project outputs (available in Czech only)

Text ve formátu PDF Rozvoj systému a metodiky prognózování potřeb kvalifikace na trhu práce, včetně návrhů pro vědu a výzkum. (Development of the System and Methodology for Forecasting Labour Market Skill Needs, Including Proposals for Research and Development). Praha, NOZV-NVF 2004.
Text ve formátu PDF Přílohy 1 - 9 (Annexes 1 - 9)
Text ve formátu PDF Přílohy ke kap. 6 (Annexes to Chapter 6):

 

Project title Designing a System of Regular Forecasting Skills Needs in the Labour Market
Project duration 2002 - 2003

A project (2002-2003) funded by the Ministry of Labour and Social Affairs which aims to establish a system for ongoing qualitative and quantitative forecasting activities, to provide for inter-institutional co-operation and to ascertain the financial costs of a system for regular projections of qualification needs including identification of possible sources of finance.

Project outputs:

 Systém prognózování potřeby kvalifikací v České republice: návrh na vybudování funkčního systému pro národní a regionální úroveň (abstrakt) (System for Forecasting Skill Needs in the Czech Republic: Proposal for Developing a System for National and Regional Levels (abstract). Praha, NOZV-NVF 2003.

 

Project title Finalisation of Methodology, Data Inputs and Structures for Practical Implementation of a Scheme for Quantitative and Qualitative Forecasting of Skills Needs, Including the Interpretation of Its Outputs
Project duration 2002

A project funded by the MoLSA. It aims to improve the structure and breakdown of input data from Labour Force Surveys, to discuss the possible development of macroeconomic prognoses concerning sectoral employment, to enhance the input data about school leavers and to develop or modify other sources of input data. The project analyses the forecasting model in terms of additional data about wages and modification of the structure of forecasting outputs so that they may be used in other information systems. The project also contains a proposal for the interpretation of forecasting outputs designed for various groups of users.

 

Project title Identification of Skills Shortages in the Czech Labour Market
Project duration 2002 - 2003

A project supported by the Ministry of Labour and Social Affairs (2002-2003). It analysed the qualification requirements of employers in terms of vacancies that are constantly difficult to fill, problems the employers must face within the recruitment process, skills and knowledge shortage of employees by qualifications, unemployment of qualified persons in the labour market for the reason of a shortage of skills required by employers. Besides, the project analysed qualification requirements in terms of investors' and employers' prospective needs.

Project outputs(available in Czech only):

 Identifikace nedostatku kvalifikací na českém trhu práce. (Identification of Skills Shortages in the Czech Labour Market). Praha, NOZV-NVF 2003.
 Podkladové studie a materiály ke studii "Identifikace nedostatku kvalifikací na českém trhu práce". (Background Studies and Materials for the Study "Identification of Skills Shortages in the Czech Labour Market). Praha, NOZV-NVF 2003.

 

Project title Tacis Twinning - Analysis of Skills Needs in Transition Economies
Project duration 2000 - 2001

The objective of the project (2000-2001), which was funded by the ETF, was to support the development of an information system for monitoring trends and requirements of the labour markets in the Kyrgyz Republic and Mongolia. One specific task consisting in preparation for application of qualitative methods for analysing skills needs in regions and sectors. The Observatory, together with its colleagues from the Regional Observatory in Burgundy, presented its experience with the relevant methods to Mongolian and Kyrgyz experts.

 

Project title "LABOURatory" - Regular Forecasting of Training Needs
Project duration 1999 - 2001

Logo Labouratory A two-year international project (1999-2001) implemented within the Leonardo da Vinci programme. Its objective was to compare the existing quantitative and qualitative methods of forecasting skills needs of the labour market and to design a model for regular projections. The project was implemented in co/operation with leading expert institutions in France, the Netherlands, Germany, Ireland and the CR.

Project outputs:

Text ve formátu PDF Forecasting Education and Training Needs in Transition Economies: Lessons from the Western European Experience. Praha, NOZV-NVF 1999. ISBN 80-211-0338-8.

 

Project title Qualification Requirements and Institutional Development in the Ostrava Region
Project duration 1999 - 2001

An analysis (1998-1999) based on a survey into corporate plans for recruiting and laying off employees with regard to their levels of qualification and professions. Moreover, an assessment of the information and institutional structure and links was carried out with a focus on the region's preparedness for future participation in ESF projects.

Project outputs:

Text ve formátu PDF Analýza rozvoje odborného vzdělávání a institucionálního rozvoje v Ostravském regionu. Praha, NOZV-NVF 1999. ISBN 80-211-0336-1.
Text ve formátu PDF Analysis of VET and Institutional Development in the Ostrava Region. Torino, ETF 1999.